Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 12.878346 15.696951 18.832284 22.556914 26.838454 31.583516 37.216526
2026-01-18 9.076412 12.756585 17.296961 23.214850 30.621685 39.480232 50.761116
2026-01-25 6.569940 10.414541 15.578291 22.815449 32.470444 44.671011 60.988688
2026-02-01 5.130599 9.037097 14.678693 23.071750 34.851624 50.383803 71.939935
2026-02-08 3.931781 7.686498 13.502204 22.649866 36.093610 54.499934 80.878681
2026-02-15 2.996340 6.506078 12.329552 21.987982 36.800878 57.786392 88.734806
2026-02-22 2.519355 5.985080 12.076503 22.624418 39.359368 63.708323 100.416304
2026-03-01 1.991946 5.232385 11.297797 22.293456 40.365722 67.388345 109.044318
2026-03-08 1.624326 4.697400 10.798032 22.328785 41.886597 71.839852 118.913579
2026-03-15 1.227683 3.980002 9.829056 21.416611 41.765914 73.754180 125.079932
2026-03-22 1.056603 3.739436 9.739363 22.041303 44.190458 79.655779 137.393033
2026-03-29 0.887796 3.451975 9.501880 22.351527 46.076898 84.772042 148.680102
2026-04-05 0.738488 3.185507 9.301507 22.782756 48.332166 90.795184 161.957575
2026-04-12 0.624060 2.982254 9.212162 23.432208 51.040267 97.723050 177.000600
2026-04-19 0.477348 2.607310 8.643562 23.028903 51.789280 101.438197 187.093119
2026-04-26 0.388411 2.388592 8.409636 23.287019 53.758805 107.256716 200.734603
2026-05-03 0.293262 2.088147 7.895307 22.862028 54.378317 110.778042 210.747474
2026-05-10 0.212911 1.790495 7.312444 22.195252 54.453180 113.327298 219.218372
2026-05-17 0.179613 1.696624 7.295514 22.836392 57.156765 120.590308 235.747845
2026-05-24 0.133626 1.493102 6.895059 22.502988 57.848888 124.284231 246.383530
2026-05-31 0.103402 1.352791 6.658515 22.538578 59.291953 129.374236 259.531416
2026-06-07 0.068678 1.131411 6.081083 21.619634 58.639669 130.581276 266.032541
2026-06-14 0.057137 1.078847 6.091915 22.248969 61.353073 138.123754 283.728614